Alex Vatanka

Analyst and think tank leader in the US

52 stories

30 quotes

I only see ethnic militant groups as possibly decisive [in the war] if they are part of a broader externally-funded push to pressure the regime in Tehran, which the Islamic Republic is already anticipating and calls a foreign-led hybrid-war campaign,
From Iran’s perspective, the UAE can be replaced, but the Iranians are openly saying it’s not going to happen overnight,
The question is no longer whether Mojtaba is alive, but whether Iran still has a functioning supreme leader,
A genuine deal with Washington requires Mojtaba's unmistakable approval and so does any decision to sustain a long and costly conflict with the United States,
A ceasefire is not a switch that can simply be flipped. Iran wants to translate battlefield realities into political gains before locking itself into a new status quo,
I don’t think it will go down well with President Trump because he doesn’t want to do that,

Earlier

The US and Iran have blown past red lines as they lurch back toward all-out war

The Independentindependent.co.uk/news/strait…

Now a leader who once owned some of the world’s best-known casinos may be about to take the biggest gamble of his presidency by restarting a war with Iran less than a month after agreeing to a ceasefire that he hailed as necessary to stop an economic crisis on a par with the Great Depression

Guardiantheguardian.com/world/2026…

Trump is edging towards another American ‘forever war’ in Iran

CNNcnn.com/2026/07…

In the past week, Trump has ordered a resumption of strikes against Iranian military and infrastructure targets after concluding that the memorandum of understanding (MoU) he signed in the Palace of Versailles on 17 June was dead in the water

Guardiantheguardian.com/world/2026…